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Obama Competitive in 'Red' SC? One Poll Says So

Would not bode well for the GOP nationally

 

When leaders of the Republican Party look at an electoral map and decide which states are firmly are in their column, South Carolina is one of the first states chosen.

And rightfully so. 

The Palmetto State hasn’t voted for a Democrat in the presidential race since 1976, when it voted for Gov. Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia.

Nevertheless, a new poll from NBC/Marist suggests GOP leaders may want to think twice before they take South Carolina for granted.

With much of the media’s attention on how durable Newt Gingrich is as a frontrunner, the poll of South Carolina voters, which was released over the weekend, shows President Obama leading Gingrich by four percentage points (46-42), Mitt Romney by three (45-42) and Ron Paul by ten (47-37).

The fact that Obama is even within shouting distance in a state he lost by nine points in 2008 — at the height of his popularity — indicates something may be amiss in Republicans’ certainty that they will defeat the president in 2012.

South Carolina Republicans reacted as though the thing that was most amiss was the poll itself, immediately denouncing its credibility. (See the full report in a PDF in the top right of this article.)

Katon Dawson, former state GOP chair and current state chair for Rick Perry’s campaign, said: “That poll is incorrect. No way, no how Barack Obama is leading in South Carolina.”

The poll, which surveyed 2,107 registered voters, between Dec. 4-6 has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.1 percentage points. The poll put Gingrich up 42-34 over Romney for the GOP nomination among likely Jan. 21 primary voters.

The results of the poll show that Obama is actually more popular in South Carolina than he is in many Democratic states, a fact that the executive director of the South Carolina GOP Matt Moore used to question the veracity of the survey in a Tuesday email blast to media and supporters.

“Do you honestly think Barack Obama is massively more popular in South Carolina than he is nationwide?” Moore asked.

Aside from the fact that none of the top three candidates for the presidential nomination is ahead of Obama in one of the reddest states in the country, the poll contains several pieces of data that must be disconcerting for the GOP.

First, 68 percent of those polled identified themselves as conservatives, which means that, depending on who he’s paired against, Obama is getting between 13-15 percent of the vote from those who identify themselves as the "right."

Also, only 28 percent of voters said they supported the Tea Party, which would seem to fly in the face of how much attention the group is paid by candidates and by the party itself.

Additionally, only 20 percent said the ability to beat Obama is the most-important quality for a Republican presidential candidate, the third-most popular choice behind “shares my values” and “closest to me on the issues.”

This figure would no doubt make Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell unhappy, as he famously declared that defeating Obama was his top priority.

What must be especially frustrating to Republicans is that the amount of people who say they approve of the job Obama is doing is eclipsed by the number of people who say they would vote for him.

Meaning, that there are people within the Republican Party who say they would still vote for Obama even though they don’t think he’s doing a good job. That does not say much for the Republican presidential field.

South Carolina Democratic consultant Tyler Jones was, as one might expect, delighted with the poll numbers. He was not surprised either.

“In the last four years the Republican Party has adopted a ‘no moderates allowed’ policy," Jones said. "It’s starting to backfire on them even in South Carolina.”

Jones believes that the poll numbers reflect voters’ desire for a divided government, with the president from one party and the Congress from the other. Except they’ve grown frustrated with the Republican-led House.

“They’re obstructionist and they’re led by the Tea Party,” Jones said. “It’s bad for the country.”

But, Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, cautioned Obama supporters not to start booking hotel rooms for the inaugural just yet.

“This is not the best group of presidential candidates the Republicans have ever had, but that said, everything we’ve seen up to now indicates it’s going to be a close election next year,” Kondik said.

“If we saw three or four polls that showed Obama ahead in South Carolina then we might say we have a trend, but this is just one poll. Still, it was pretty eye-opening.”

And if South Carolina is in play, anything is possible.

“If South Carolina is in play then this could be like a 1984 when the President won 49 states,” Jones said, which means that Gingrich may start resembling Walter Mondale more than he ever could have imagined.

Joe

8:42 pm on Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Obama is despised in SC! He carries SC i will jump from the empire state building!

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Mimi

8:56 pm on Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Only be people like you Joe. The Republican Party that South Carolina is use to supporting doesn't exsist anymore and MOST people know that. The Republicans in office today are simply employees of Norquist and corporate greed. Obama will win South Carolina in 2012 and maybe people like you will finally wake up and see that Somolia is not what Americans are interested in and that is what the Republicans are offering.

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Christina Fusco

8:55 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Please don't jump Joe. But Mimi is right. The Republican Party is being controlled by the very greedy 1% right now and spewing hate to confuse the masses. Their way of life is over. This year is going to be a great one for the 99%. God Bless America. Please have faith in Jesus as he working on Obama's side. All things come to those who wait. OUR time is now. I will reveal the truth to anyone willing to listen. Love you all. Christina Fusco in Boynton Beach, Florida

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Barb Markovich

9:28 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

better go buy a parashute Mr. cuz he"s going to win for sure!

Joe

9:34 pm on Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Mimi, wake up you're not in Oz anymore!

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Steve Gonzales

12:47 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

You're right... Maybe it's time you woke up and realized you aren't in Oz anymore yourself ....

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harry

6:06 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

also has to quit smoking that funny stuff.

NoBamaEverAgain

10:39 pm on Tuesday, December 13, 2011

What a joke!! Today's new USA Today/Gallup poll indicates that Obama loses to both Romney and Gingrich in swing states he won in 2008 and you want us to believe Obama can win in South Carolina. Dream on!!

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NoBamaEverAgain

10:50 pm on Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Take the time to look at the actual poll: They polled 100 people of which (supposedly) 50% either support or strongly support the Tea Party and somehow they get the results that Obama could win. There's not a Tea Party member/supporter i know that would ever vote for Obama! Ever!

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stanley seigler

11:16 pm on Tuesday, December 13, 2011

BO will never win in SC...but SC should consider:

"His numbers show the massive racial divide you might expect- 94% of African Americans approve of the job he's doing but only 24% of whites do. If he had even a 30% approval rating with white voters he'd be in pretty decent standing in the state..."
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/obama-close-in-south-carolina-except.html

seems racism is still alive and well in SC.

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Tonto

12:01 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Stanley he is half white so go figure :)

kay hong

11:47 pm on Tuesday, December 13, 2011

I would not vote for any republican candidate ,even if he is the only one running for dog
catcher

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GCarey

3:11 am on Sunday, December 18, 2011

Kay I agree with you about Republicans, just not dog catchers. There are no more dog catchers anymore, they are humane officers and I was one for many years. :) We really need to stop using sayings like "There's more than one way to skin a cat." eweee, what a horrible thought, or teaching kids to sing "Three Blind Mice" who had their tails cut off. We have a brutal history, and it was not always directed at humans. Hence, we don't call people Spics or Gooks, or a host of other horrible venaculars. Let's get up with the times.

As for Obama, just because he's half white, doesn't mean he's not half black, so if you are looking either to hate him or love him based on his ancestry, people will grab whatever side works for them. Sad as it is.

And that response is for Stanley and Tonto.

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stanley seigler

4:33 am on Sunday, December 18, 2011

@GCarey: "...Let's get up with the times..."

apologies to all if i used any " horrible vernaculars" ... i make a conscious effort to stick to issues not personalities and adhoms...

agree with 99% of what GC say...didn't know there were still teaching kid 3 blind mice:)

Tonto

11:57 pm on Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Any dog catcher is more qualified and could defeat Obama with little effort :)

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Steve Gonzales

12:50 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Evidently you are as smart as some of those dogs... Because there isn't a republucans that poseses the same views and ideas as most Americans ... Unless you are the overly wealthy... Which you aren't

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harry

6:09 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

very true, obama has never in his life run or manged anything. not even as little as a lemonaid stand. what else could we have xpected.. the job is way above his paygrade.

stanley seigler

12:14 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

@kay hong "I would not vote for any republican candidate ,even if he is the only one running for dog catcher"

well i might...but cant think of one...tho as mentioned i did vote for tricky dick.

cant imagine where our great country would have been today if BO had not been elected...the GOP unregulated, free market, policies would have sent us over the cliff...

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Joe

6:39 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

So you voted for Nixon, show your intelligence

Steve Gonzales

12:42 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Love watching dumb republucans vote against their own self interests .... Make that mansion shine for those republican politicians down now ya hear... Is it just a coincidence the less educated a state is the more red it is???..... Haha

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Joe

6:38 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

no, it's just a coincidence that blacks vote democratic because they get all their checks from them

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Mimi

10:57 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Careful Joey your showing your true colors the racist side of you is becoming very evident to everyone. You see you only prove that in your vision you support the Republicans and the Tea Party because they are racists and that is where your ideology is. Doesn't matter how much suffering the country has as long as you feel comfy that their is a racist group you can support. Pathetic

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Mimi

10:58 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Besides Joe you do realize that their are more White people on the government dole than blacks don't you????

Wes Rasmussen

1:18 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

-Kyle Kondik doesn't know what he talks about. The only election I can remember being won by a margin of 49-1 was 1972, when Nixon did not carry Massachussetts, as I remember the bumper sticker saying NIXON 49 / AMERICA -1. I lived in Mass at the time, so it should be an accurate memory. Other than that, I agree with the opinion there isn't a single candidate worth half a drop of camel spit as President for the next election.

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harry

6:11 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

we escaped from massachusetts back in 1979....i had a bumper sticker that said---more people have died in ted kennedys car than in nuclear power plants.

stanley seigler

2:00 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

@Steve Gonzales: "Is it just a coincidence the less educated a state is the more red it is???

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red/blue, liberal/conservative has nothing to do with education/intelligence...my parents generation (my aunts and uncles) were not college educated...not sure if all finished hi school...

they all (i think) voted for FDR, truman, JFK; and had more insight and compassion than most of my college friends...

it is incomprehensible how very smart people advocate free markets...unregulated free markets dont work...especially in health care, education, police/fire protection, social services...well;

maybe they would work in a civilization where there are no greedy bastards...

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Tonto

10:57 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The sky is falling wolf wolf the sky is falling its all bushes fault wolf wolf ha ha ho ho he he he har OCCUPOO! OCCUPEE ! !

Joe

6:40 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Can we have our plane back...please? what a pathetic President!

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Shawn Drury

8:15 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

@Wes Rasmussen - Your memory is correct. Also, the 1984 results can be found here (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html). Walter Mondale won Minnesota and Washington, DC.

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Wes Rasmussen

8:23 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Shawn - I stand corrected. I guess the only difference between the two is that for Nixon, it spelled the beginning of the end for his Presidency, as it spawned the Watergate scandal, leading up to his resignation the day before he was to be Impeached by the House. Thank you from not only myself but for all the others who want to know the truth first before reading all the prepubescent drivel spouted by the GOTP nowadays...

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Susan

9:04 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

So, who can believe polls, or articles written in a way which says Obama is a shoe in for 2012 in SC? Anyone who reads such idiocy, and believes it, shouldn't even be voting. I do not know one person here in SC (and I know many) who would vote for a man who was placed in the White House in 2008, and not by their votes. The news media thinks by writing such an article, they will sway people to vote against their principles? But that is the media for you; it believes America can be fooled; twice.. They write whatever direction they want things to fall in. Look at what the media did to Cain? Was any of it true?The media put it out there like it was, and after 12 years, women coming out of the woodwork as Cain climbed up in the polls against Obama. Timing is everything. His chances were ruined and also his reputation. He got out of the race, which was the media's goal. .Does anyone believe that those women suddenly, thought about it and said, well Herman hurt me 12 years ago; now is the time to get even? 12 years later? I really feel each were put up to the whole thing. And are the suits till being pursued? Amazing the power of the media, in this country. The whole thing is now old news. No more media coverage, you may have noticed. Damage is done, and goal is complete.

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Mimi

11:02 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Susan I will just tell you that I LIVE IN SOUTH CAROLINA along with a ton of other people WHO INDEED voted for Obama in 2008 and will do it proudly again in 2012. Anyone who would be commenting in support of Cain needs their head examined. Susan you are dellusional and blaming the media for your lack of intelligence or ability to get informed with facts only makes you look even more ignorant.

ReadIt

9:51 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Vote the man, not the party.

If the Rep nominee said that we should all jump off of a bridge, most of SC would do it. I will not be surprised if Obama wins...and honestly there are a few Rep nominees I would vote against when paired with Obama.

And I know plenty of people who will vote for Obama who have always voted "red". The nominees this year are 90% extreme, ignorant, arrogant, egotistical, judgmental. The Rep nomination this year seems to be a race to most extreme.

Good luck winning an election across the nation when you're only appealing to one segment of the population.

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ajit

10:01 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

RNC slogan for 2012: Anybody but Obama, even Newt!

D'oh!

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JimW

11:21 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Just remember, we got Obama because people wanted “Change” after Bush …

JimW

10:29 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

It would be interesting to know how many of those polled receive some form of government check. You might consider yourself conservative in many regards but if you’re counting on money from the government (a.k.a. tax dollars) to pay your bills then maybe the sound of smaller government and lower taxes isn’t quite so sweet. Just a thought …

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Mimi

11:10 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Hey JimW anyone living in the entire state is drawing some form of government money you do realize that South Carolina is one of the biggest government teet suckers in the country don't you??? Trying to call yourself a fiscal conservative and act as a Republican will never fit together. Tell me one time in history that a REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT EVER BALANCE THE BUDGET. Just ONE Tell me how much the REPUBLICAN RUN STATE of SOUTH CAROLINA has increased its request for GOVERNMENT money while raising the average persons taxes higher than any south state?? Tell me Jimmy boy why is it that a state like Florida with NO STATE tax less property taxes, less insurance fees, has better roads, school, police, colleges, infurstructure so on and so on. You are living in a dream if you can't see the FACTS right in front of your face. This state is the sewer of the south. You still waiting on that trickle down to reach you???? The ignorance of some people just amaze me. You are so worried about some poor person getting money for food, yet you got no problem with your Governor spending $17,000 a month on groceries. You got no problem paying for Nimrata vacations at the tax payers expense, you got no problem feed the corporate welfare system in this state. You really are pathetic..

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JimW

3:30 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Mimi I must give you credit. You are really giving 110% to earn that coveted spot as "Angry Liberal of the Year". Since you seem to be so passionate in your pursuit of this lofty goal, I will gladly draft a letter of recommendation for you and get it off to Barack, Harry, Nancy, and even cc John Kerry for good measure. Best of luck and live the dream!!!

June Winterbottom

10:35 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

What person in his/her right mind would ever vote for another republican after the Bush era and now the new speaker's stupidity?

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Tonto

11:00 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

We need a total whore like Clinton who screwed women behind Hillaries back in the White House while opening the illegal immigrant flood gates. I feel sorry for poor poor Obama. We can't pick on the dear darling. He didn't mean to destroy the country. Or did he?

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Mimi

11:15 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

That is the answer to your question June only the extremist (jim Jones followers) looking for the imaginary land of the past, supporting a obvious dysfunctional party for SOCIAL agenda, religous zealots, racists, ideology driven, uninformed, uneducated all on the RIGHT. Noone that is informed and educated would even be considering voting for any of the exsisting Republican candidates. Jon Huntsman would be the only one even worth consideration and he will never get the attention of the hate driven evil the Republican party has become. The evidence in the fact that the NEWSTER of all people would be at the top should be plenty of evidence what the Republican party has become.

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JimW

11:17 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

@June
This seems like a strange argument … One could just as easily ask who in their right mind would have ever voted for another Democrat after the Carter era, yet people have. Or who would have ever voted for another Democrat after the antics of Nancy Pelosi? (maybe based on the last congressional election not too many) ...

Joe

11:21 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Yes Mimi, I am a racist, I admit it unlike so many others who call names and then deny the truth, I believe the African American community should be ashamed of themselves! There I said it many believe it no one ha the courage to say it!

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SDR

11:53 am on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The regional difference in political thought is explained in this book:
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0670022969/ref=asc_df_06700229691819613?smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER&tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=asn&creative=395093&creativeASIN=0670022969

Even with GOP in charge, the government pendulum has continued to swing to the left(even with Reagan and Bush 43). Now that we are 15 trillion in debt, it is time to try another tack. I am going to vote for Ron Paul and any Libertarian on the ballot.

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stanley seigler

1:06 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

@JimW: "This seems like a strange argument … One could just as easily ask etcetc"...
to say over the top hyperbole here is "strange" is beling extremeny kind...indeed strange...and as mentioned adds little or nothing to a better understanding of the issues.

if USA had followed careter's energy policy we would not be depend on mid east oil today...and a few of carters accomplishments

as GA gov:
"the time for racial discrimination is over." It was an unprecedented statement for a Southern governor, but Carter made good on his words. He increased the number of African American state employees by 40 percent and hung portraits of Martin Luther King Jr. and other notable black Georgians in the state capitol. He equalized the funding of schools in rich and poor districts of the state..."
http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/car0bio-1

as president:
*Panama Canal treaties
*Camp David Accords
*treaty of peace between Egypt and Israel
*the SALT II treaty with the Soviet Union
*establishment of U.S. diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China
*comprehensive energy program conducted by a new Department of Energy
*deregulation in energy, transportation, communications, and finance

*educational programs under a new Department of Education
*environmental protection legislation, including the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act.
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_some_accomplishments_of_Jimmy_Carter#ixzz1gX4lsCn0

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JimW

2:25 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

My point here was not to judge Carter and I selected him only because he was hugely unpopular in the 1980 election, like Bush was in 2008. My point to June was just because there was a hugely unpopular democratic president in 1980 that lost to a republican by a landslide; this did not mean that all reasonable people abandoned all future democrat candidates. I gladly acknowledge that Carter had some positive ideas and achievements. I wish more people could do the same for George W.

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JimW

2:40 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

@Stanley
One other thing ... I'm really glad you chose to defend Carter and not Nancy. I can respect your points about Carter but defending Nancy would be like defending the success of the French army or the judgement of Captain Edward John Smith while commanding the Titanic.

Richard Yacenda

1:26 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Joe your admissions are clear you are a bigoted stupid being.Let us know when you are jumping I want to cheer that act all the way down.Hahaha

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Joe

2:22 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

richard if Obama wins SC that is so funny i cannot even bet a serious bet with you!

Wes Rasmussen

2:59 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Beware the gold of GOTP trickle down economics!! You just might be standing under a leaking sewer pipe...

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Joe

3:02 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

I'll take trickle down economics any day over trickle up economics, you just haven't figured out the difference!

George Grace

3:47 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

I stopped in at Krispy Kreme (12th and Knox Abbott) this afternoon. I had a book with me, FDR and the New Deal by William Leuctenberg. A woman, middle aged, behind the counter saw the book and said "he was the start of it all and led to Obama." I felt like pointing out that millions of people were living in "Hoovervilles", millions jobless, the suffering was immense etc but I didn't, people were in line and the setting was wrong.
I would have told her that if you don't vote your interests - working poor - you're a fool. She had that little bit of knowledge that told her govt, not the Wall Street wolves, was the problem. Sad.
So she'll probably vote Repub against her best interests not knowing or understanding anything.
Krispy Kreme makes good coffee.

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Joe

3:50 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Mimi is one of those angry liberals, their dream has vanished before their eyes, Jimny Carter was not John The Baptist and Obama is not Jesus and they just can't believe that socialism is a failure so they scream and call us names, we are bigots and racists and the more we succeed the angrier they get.

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Joe

3:51 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

George go finish your book and your coffee and hopefully when your done with both you'll go get an enema

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stanley seigler

7:17 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

@ Wes Rasmussen: "Beware the gold of GOTP trickle down economics!!

COMMENT
guess you dont believe that trickle on yo leg is rainwater...

themes/evils of orwell's "1984" trickle through today's politics...eg: perpetual war (well 10 years and running); newspeak and doublethink, trickle up is trickle down, ignorance is strength, etcetc... http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0922-07.htm

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stanley seigler

8:25 pm on Wednesday, December 14, 2011

@JimW: "... I'm really glad you chose to defend Carter and not Nancy...

COMMENT
not sure how to defend/critique either pelosi or boehner...they do their partisan thing and of course i agree with pelosi's politics...so would be useless to defend her by listing legislation she pushed through the house...eg, BO-care and tarp...

guess she might be defended by comparing to boehner:

"Boehner’s tenure has been a seven-month-long fiasco. The Speaker has routinely struggled to keep his caucus in line behind his leadership, for example, and has found in many key instances that House Republicans simply don’t care what Boehner thinks. Whereas the Speaker traditionally is one of Washington’s most powerful players, Boehner is arguably the weakest Speaker we’ve seen in many decades — he’s not leading an unruly caucus; his unruly caucus is leading him.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_08/setting_the_bar_for_success_to031797.php

just quoting for lack of specific accomplishments...i like boehner and will miss him come jan2013...i dont personally care for pelosi, but believe she was an effective leader.

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Tonto

12:00 am on Thursday, December 15, 2011

Pelosi only got where she is at by swinging her big knockers around.

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Jonathan Allen

2:04 pm on Thursday, December 15, 2011

Wow Tonto, that is really insightful, thank you for contributing so much to the conversation. Sexist personal attacks really are the best way to conduct a conversation. Forget about the merits or failures of the policies Pelosi supported and pushed through Congress, those are meaningless and have absolutely no bearing on the well being of the country and its citizens. No, what's really important here is reminding everyone that as a woman Pelosi was only able to gain any sort of power or influence by trading on her gender and sexuality, despite the glaring lack of evidence to support your assertion. Well done on reminding all women where their place is though.

stanley seigler

10:17 am on Thursday, December 15, 2011

@George Grace "...she'll probably vote Repub against her best interests not knowing or understanding anything..."

i understand why the 1% are GOP voters (tho all are not, eg, buffett and others)...but why would any 99er vote GOP...they cant be stupid...tho that might explain it...of course;

there are those who truly believe the unregulated free market will work one day...perhaps it will take strike 3 for them to get it...strike one: 1929. strike 2: 2008. strike 3: sometime after a GOPtp wins the white house...(hope not in God's lifetime)

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Tonto

11:41 pm on Thursday, December 15, 2011

Well Stanley we know communism doesn't work but nobody seems to have ever convinced Obama of that. His new and improved version in the shiny new wrapper still tastes the same when you take a bite. This election is about whether the United Staes goes communist (aka socialist) or works to improve on capitalism which has dominated the planet. People willing to work hard benefit and the lazies want to free load and steal :)

Heather

3:00 pm on Monday, December 19, 2011

This was very good news! I just saw a youtube of Newt saying that the government should allow a terrorist attack to remind us to be aware of the threat. Thanks Newt.

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Joe

3:10 pm on Monday, December 19, 2011

great you get your news from you tube, fantastic, America is safe!

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